Researchers show market accuracy comes from a tiny group of informed traders, not broad participation. A new working paper analyzing every Polymarket trade from 2023 to 2025 finds that about 3% of traders account for most price discovery, undermining the idea that prediction markets rely on the wisdom of the crowd. The researchers distinguish skill from luck by simulating each trader’s bets 10,000 times with coin-flip directions, concluding that only a small share of top winners consistently ou…
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