Spot ETF outflows and a hawkish Federal Reserve are creating a "macro ceiling" that makes a new all-time high unlikely without a major geopolitical shift. Onchain metrics for bitcoin are improving, but elevated realized losses of about $479 million a day signal that a durable recovery is not yet confirmed. A large short-gamma options cluster around $82,000 is likely to amplify volatility and briefly squeeze prices higher, but may then act as resistance rather than support for a sustained rally.…
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